The impact of the Victorian Gas Substitution Roadmap on forecasts of gas usage and connections in the AusNet distribution area

The CIE was commissioned by Ausnet Services to analyse the impacts of the Victoria Gas Substitution Roadmap on forecasts we previously prepared of usage between 2023 and 2028. The key changes in the Roadmap include phasing out incentives for gas residential appliances, removal of requirement for new housing developments to be connected to gas, and moving to a 7 Star Standard for new home construction. We projected that the Roadmap would reduce usage of new and existing customers. Further, we modelled five scenarios for residential connections using assumptions developed with Ausnet about the rate of existing customers that would disconnect.

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Phil Manners
Phil Manners

Principal

Dennis McCarthy
Dennis McCarthy

Associate Director

Phil Mannerssummary_new, Dennis McCarthy, Phil Manners, Econometric models, Forecasting, 2022